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V-Lab

Inversora Juramento Sa AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

37.17%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

37.30%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

37.79%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Inversora Juramento Sa AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0452
7.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0352
22.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9591
535.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3715
-3.42***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

123 days