V-Lab
Moreld AS MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.21%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
36.03%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
37.55%
increased by 1.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0732 | 1.67* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8158 | 4.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0255 | -0.86 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.9775 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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