V-Lab
Moreld AS Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
30.56%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
31.07%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
31.79%
increased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5756 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0488 | 1.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7747 | 5.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -3.3538 | -3.20*** |
| γ2 | 4.1078 | 2.93*** |
Persistence:
0.823
Half-life:
4 days
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