V-Lab
Moreld AS GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
33.11%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
34.26%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
36.22%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.6246 | 2.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8612 | 15.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6965 | 1.29 |
Persistence:
0.861
Half-life:
5 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities