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V-Lab

Moreld AS GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

33.11%

decreased by 1.81%

1 Week

34.26%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

36.22%

increased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Moreld AS GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 27, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.6246
2.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0867
2.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8612
15.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6965
1.29

Persistence:

0.861

Half-life:

5 days