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V-Lab

Moreld AS GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

37.11%

decreased by 2.83%

1 Week

37.32%

decreased by 2.62%

1 Month

37.70%

decreased by 2.24%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Moreld AS GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 27, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.7251
2.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0868
2.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8624
15.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7019
1.29

Persistence:

0.862

Half-life:

5 days