Moreld AS GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
37.11%
decreased by 2.83%
1 Week
37.32%
decreased by 2.62%
1 Month
37.70%
decreased by 2.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7251 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0868 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8624 | 15.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7019 | 1.29 |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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