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V-Lab

Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

125.75%

decreased by 8.57%

1 Week

127.80%

decreased by 6.52%

1 Month

146.98%

increased by 12.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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graph of Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1156 trading days (~4.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1449
5.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8574
114.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0059
-0.10
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.6782
0.99
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0190
0.57
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9733
24.90***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1156 days