V-Lab
Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
125.75%
decreased by 8.57%
1 Week
127.80%
decreased by 6.52%
1 Month
146.98%
increased by 12.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1156 trading days (~4.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1449 | 5.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8574 | 114.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0059 | -0.10 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.6782 | 0.99 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0190 | 0.57 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9733 | 24.90*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1156 days
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