Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
123.08%
increased by 0.97%
1 Week
125.32%
increased by 3.21%
1 Month
133.69%
increased by 11.58%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0915 | 13.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9078 | 146.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0541 | 1.61 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8681 | 17.80*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
149 days
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