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V-Lab

Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

135.05%

decreased by 22.21%

1 Week

135.96%

decreased by 21.30%

1 Month

139.55%

decreased by 17.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2825
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7175
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-5.6539
γ25.2628
γ3-0.3308
γ42.6281
γ5-3.2151
γ61.9904
γ7-1.2000
γ80.5475
γ90.0844

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days