V-Lab
Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
135.05%
decreased by 22.21%
1 Week
135.96%
decreased by 21.30%
1 Month
139.55%
decreased by 17.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2825 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7175 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -5.6539 | |
| γ2 | 5.2628 | |
| γ3 | -0.3308 | |
| γ4 | 2.6281 | |
| γ5 | -3.2151 | |
| γ6 | 1.9904 | |
| γ7 | -1.2000 | |
| γ8 | 0.5475 | |
| γ9 | 0.0844 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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