Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
66.90%
1 Week
67.58%
1 Month
70.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95643824 trading days (~379539.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1681 | 9.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1179 | 18.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8821 | 181.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1299 | 4.12*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9564 | 24.69*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
95643824 days
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