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Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

66.90%

decreased by 2.10%

1 Week

67.58%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Month

70.26%

increased by 1.26%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95643824 trading days (~379539.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1681
9.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1179
18.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8821
181.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1299
4.12***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9564
24.69***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

95643824 days