Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
48.70%
increased by 7.09%
1 Week
48.65%
increased by 7.04%
1 Month
48.46%
increased by 6.85%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2005 | 267.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5715 | 130.35*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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