V-Lab
Visne Madencilik Uretim Sana MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
48.24%
1 Week
52.67%
1 Month
55.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2830 | 28.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5266 | 23.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2830 | -32.17*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.9966 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0241 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2006 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.668
Half-life:
2 days
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