Inpex Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
32.25%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Week
32.44%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
33.13%
decreased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 6.70 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.8770 | 1.57 |
| αscore | 0.0669 | 6.45*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9858 | 98.14*** |
| νDF | 6.6980 | 1.26 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.8770 | 1.57 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0669 | 6.45*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9858 | 98.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6980 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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