Havila Kystruten As GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
44.16%
decreased by 2.03%
1 Week
52.18%
increased by 5.99%
1 Month
63.30%
increased by 17.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.4444 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2087 | 10.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8477 | 29.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1031 | 9.17*** |
Persistence:
0.848
Half-life:
4 days
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