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V-Lab

Havila Kystruten As Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

43.93%

decreased by 13.85%

1 Week

43.89%

decreased by 13.89%

1 Month

43.86%

decreased by 13.92%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Havila Kystruten As SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 3, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3607
2.44**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3166
4.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4348
5.33***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ16.2658
1.61
γ2-8.0291
-1.39
γ35.3848
0.93
γ4-12.2507
-1.81*
γ516.3094
2.68***
γ6-9.9800
-2.33**
γ70.0957
0.03
γ85.7337
1.72*
γ9-6.6932
-1.50

Persistence:

0.751

Half-life:

2 days