V-Lab
Havila Kystruten As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
40.63%
decreased by 4.86%
1 Week
46.87%
increased by 1.38%
1 Month
52.97%
increased by 7.48%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3801 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3213 | 4.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4371 | 5.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 6.4640 | 1.64 |
| γ2 | -8.3500 | -1.41 |
| γ3 | 5.6946 | 0.95 |
| γ4 | -12.5656 | -1.79* |
| γ5 | 16.2806 | 2.62*** |
| γ6 | -9.4911 | -2.20** |
| γ7 | -0.2956 | -0.09 |
| γ8 | 4.9926 | 1.64 |
| γ9 | -3.4843 | -1.64 |
Persistence:
0.758
Half-life:
3 days
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