V-Lab
Havila Kystruten As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.23%
decreased by 2.89%
1 Week
46.19%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
49.50%
increased by 3.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0601 | 2.21** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3063 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4682 | 5.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.7897 | 0.27 |
| γ2 | 1.7288 | 0.40 |
| γ3 | -7.7834 | -2.51** |
| γ4 | 9.9785 | 3.77*** |
| γ5 | -7.7294 | -4.26*** |
| γ6 | 4.4266 | 3.24*** |
| γ7 | -1.5882 | -1.51 |
Persistence:
0.775
Half-life:
3 days
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