V-Lab
Havila Kystruten As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
54.68%
increased by 3.51%
1 Week
56.24%
increased by 5.07%
1 Month
57.93%
increased by 6.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3686 | 2.43** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3178 | 4.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4401 | 5.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 6.2372 | 1.60 |
| γ2 | -7.9636 | -1.38 |
| γ3 | 5.2999 | 0.92 |
| γ4 | -12.1519 | -1.78* |
| γ5 | 16.2429 | 2.64*** |
| γ6 | -10.0459 | -2.33** |
| γ7 | 0.4789 | 0.15 |
| γ8 | 4.5883 | 1.55 |
| γ9 | -3.5149 | -1.74* |
Persistence:
0.758
Half-life:
3 days
Other Havila Kystruten As Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities