V-Lab
Havila Kystruten As AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
55.93%
decreased by 5.18%
1 Week
57.64%
decreased by 3.47%
1 Month
62.19%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.04) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8954 | 6.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1807 | 15.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7640 | 77.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0417 | 6.59*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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