Merck KGaA Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
25.10%
decreased by 2.09%
1 Week
25.80%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Month
27.51%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2524 | 6.01*** |
| αARCH | 0.1742 | 7.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7308 | 34.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.0485 | 1.10 |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2524 | 6.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1742 | 7.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7308 | 34.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0485 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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