V-Lab
Merck KGaA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
25.16%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
26.90%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
28.60%
increased by 2.86%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 149% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0703 | 17.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6497 | 50.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1046 | 13.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0078 | 1.42 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0109 | 2.63*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9869 | 182.46*** |
Persistence:
0.772
Half-life:
3 days
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