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V-Lab

Merck KGaA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

25.16%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

26.90%

increased by 1.16%

1 Month

28.60%

increased by 2.86%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck KGaA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 149% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0703
17.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6497
50.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1046
13.25***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0078
1.42
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0109
2.63***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9869
182.46***

Persistence:

0.772

Half-life:

3 days