V-Lab
Merck KGaA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
26.85%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
28.43%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
30.01%
increased by 2.24%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0703 | 17.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6477 | 50.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1054 | 13.30*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0079 | 1.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0110 | 2.62*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9868 | 180.31*** |
Persistence:
0.771
Half-life:
3 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities