DAX Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	31
αARCH	0.0713	4.45***
βGARCH	0.6528	13.91***
γleverage	0.1031	3.18***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0079	1.85*
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0108	3.72***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9870	264.61***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	31
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0713	4.45***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.6528	13.91***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.1031	3.18***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0079	1.85*
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0108	3.72***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9870	264.61***

V-Lab

Merck KGaA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Merck KGaA Analyses