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V-Lab

Merck KGaA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

26.85%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Week

28.43%

increased by 0.66%

1 Month

30.01%

increased by 2.24%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:43 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck KGaA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0703
17.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6477
50.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1054
13.30***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0079
1.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0110
2.62***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9868
180.31***

Persistence:

0.771

Half-life:

3 days