V-Lab
Siemens AG Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
24.77%
increased by 2.18%
1 Week
24.92%
increased by 2.33%
1 Month
25.50%
increased by 2.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 50% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0312 | 6.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1211 | 10.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8419 | 103.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0608 | 3.12*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on International Equities