V-Lab
Siemens AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
26.29%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
26.34%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
26.52%
decreased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 154% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 9.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0241 | 14.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9514 | 689.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0372 | 10.57*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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