Siemens AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.01%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
31.99%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
31.91%
decreased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 154% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 9.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0242 | 15.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9514 | 689.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0372 | 10.55*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
119 days
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