V-Lab
Siemens AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
28.51%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
28.53%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
28.59%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 154% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 154% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0209 | 2.43** |
| αARCH | 0.0240 | 3.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9517 | 173.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.0369 | 2.63*** |
0.994
Persistence118d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0209 | 2.43** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0240 | 3.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9517 | 173.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0369 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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