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V-Lab

Siemens AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

25.33%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

25.39%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

25.61%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Siemens AG GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 154% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 154% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0209
2.44**
αARCH0.0239
3.74***
βGARCH0.9517
173.39***
γleverage0.0369
2.64***

0.994

Persistence

118d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0209
2.44**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0239
3.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9517
173.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0369
2.64***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

118 days