V-Lab
Kaleon SpA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.71%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
13.53%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
14.09%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1179 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1497 | 1.63 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4940 | 1.73* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.5829 | 0.13 |
Persistence:
0.644
Half-life:
2 days
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