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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

15.56%

increased by 1.81%

1 Week

15.46%

increased by 1.71%

1 Month

15.42%

increased by 1.67%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.65) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5082
12.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1257
6.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2776
10.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.6531
-4.43***

Persistence:

0.403

Half-life:

1 days