V-Lab
Kaleon SpA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.56%
increased by 1.81%
1 Week
15.46%
increased by 1.71%
1 Month
15.42%
increased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.65) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5082 | 12.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1257 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2776 | 10.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.6531 | -4.43*** |
Persistence:
0.403
Half-life:
1 days
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