GMO TECH Holdings Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.72%
decreased by 4.07%
1 Week
25.90%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
27.53%
increased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.63) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9198 | 9.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1712 | 8.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3880 | 32.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.6340 | -8.92*** |
Persistence:
0.559
Half-life:
1 days
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