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V-Lab

GMO TECH Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

11.06%

decreased by 1.98%

1 Week

426,224,357,821.09%

increased by 426,224,357,808.05%

1 Month

11,468,672,111,452,136,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 11,468,672,111,452,136,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of GMO TECH Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0289
256.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7211
2,512.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
341.53***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0262
102.23***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-