V-Lab
Kaleon SpA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
8.26%
1 Week
7.67%
1 Month
6.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0515 | 1.14 |
| αARCH | 0.2667 | 3.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6208 | 6.16*** |
| γleverage | -0.0258 | -0.30 |
| δpower | 1.1900 | 1.42 |
0.837
Persistence4d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0515 | 1.14 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2667 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6208 | 6.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0258 | -0.30 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1900 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.837
Half-life:
4 days
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