V-Lab
HBL Engineering Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
38.25%
increased by 1.38%
1 Week
40.42%
increased by 3.55%
1 Month
45.84%
increased by 8.97%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 17% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.70 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5255 | 9.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1684 | 40.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7820 | 151.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0464 | 5.68*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7034 | 23.87*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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