V-Lab
HBL Engineering Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
48.18%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
50.14%
increased by 1.70%
1 Month
54.10%
increased by 5.66%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.3101 | 8.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1132 | 14.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8965 | 68.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5621 | 7.85*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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