V-Lab
HBL Engineering Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
45.17%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
46.32%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
47.91%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0766 | 15.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7154 | 60.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0683 | 6.96*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0933 | 0.57 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0151 | 1.11 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9771 | 36.27*** |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
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