V-Lab
HBL Engineering Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
44.65%
decreased by 2.05%
1 Week
45.13%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Month
45.62%
decreased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0489 | 5.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1128 | 5.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6295 | 9.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2422 | -1.94* |
| γ2 | 0.4779 | 2.74*** |
| γ3 | -0.4294 | -4.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.3116 | 4.36*** |
| γ5 | -0.1430 | -2.37** |
| γ6 | -0.0115 | -0.24 |
| γ7 | 0.0635 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.742
Half-life:
2 days
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