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{name} Model Equation

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Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	126
αARCH	0.0251	2.66***
βGARCH	0.8859	67.55***
γleverage	0.0940	6.16***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0260	0.78
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0145	1.05
λ₃tau persistence	0.9800	47.08***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	126
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0251	2.66***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8859	67.55***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0940	6.16***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0260	0.78
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0145	1.05
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9800	47.08***

V-Lab

Continental AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Continental AG Analyses