V-Lab
Smcg Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
55.18%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Week
51.71%
decreased by 5.49%
1 Month
41.90%
decreased by 15.30%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0298 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1391 | 12.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8527 | 61.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0099 | -0.19 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.84* |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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