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V-Lab

Smcg Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

62.29%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Week

63.36%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

67.38%

increased by 4.03%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Smcg Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 232 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

104.7670
6.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1086
16.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9970
798.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4031
1.88*

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

232 days