V-Lab
Smcg Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
62.29%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Week
63.36%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
67.38%
increased by 4.03%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 232 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 104.7670 | 6.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 16.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 798.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4031 | 1.88* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
232 days
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