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V-Lab

Smcg Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

60.69%

decreased by 2.16%

1 Week

63.19%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

71.36%

increased by 8.51%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Smcg Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1262
12.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8245
67.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0074
-0.58
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.37
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4189
0.40
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1183
0.05

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days