V-Lab
Smcg Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
60.69%
decreased by 2.16%
1 Week
63.19%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
71.36%
increased by 8.51%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1262 | 12.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8245 | 67.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0074 | -0.58 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.37 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4189 | 0.40 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1183 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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