V-Lab
Airbus SE Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
32.35%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
32.46%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Month
32.84%
decreased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1753 | 7.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0841 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8930 | 77.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 0.71 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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