V-Lab
I-Hwa Industrial Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
29.19%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
30.93%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
35.32%
increased by 5.49%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8114 | 7.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1192 | 7.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8234 | 35.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0193 | 4.52*** |
| γ2 | -0.0396 | -5.71*** |
| γ3 | 0.0340 | 4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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