V-Lab
I-Hwa Industrial Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.98%
1 Week
38.53%
1 Month
38.12%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 43% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2154 | 29.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5498 | 31.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0644 | -8.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1039 | 2.79*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0794 | 3.24*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9120 | 34.83*** |
Persistence:
0.733
Half-life:
2 days
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