V-Lab
Ito Yogyo Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
56.51%
1 Week
57.37%
1 Month
60.17%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 15, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 52% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.55 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2901 | 10.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1415 | 22.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8474 | 151.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1341 | -5.16*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5500 | 24.02*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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