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V-Lab

Ito Yogyo Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

56.51%

decreased by 4.30%

1 Week

57.37%

decreased by 3.44%

1 Month

60.17%

decreased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ito Yogyo Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 15, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 52% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.55 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2901
10.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1415
22.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8474
151.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1341
-5.16***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5500
24.02***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days