V-Lab
Ito Yogyo Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
46.75%
1 Week
52.48%
1 Month
64.43%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 15, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 31% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3474 | 22.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5699 | 45.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0813 | -2.54** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0128 | 1.79* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0154 | 6.31*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9844 | 336.09*** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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