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V-Lab

Ito Yogyo Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

46.75%

decreased by 4.95%

1 Week

52.48%

increased by 0.78%

1 Month

64.43%

increased by 12.73%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ito Yogyo Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 15, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 31% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3474
22.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5699
45.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0813
-2.54**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0128
1.79*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0154
6.31***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9844
336.09***

Persistence:

0.877

Half-life:

5 days