V-Lab
Ito Yogyo Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
51.10%
decreased by 4.31%
1 Week
56.37%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
65.41%
increased by 10.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 15, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1856 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2661 | 7.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6121 | 14.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1637 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | 0.4174 | 1.70* |
| γ3 | -0.5390 | -3.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.5528 | 3.39*** |
| γ5 | -0.4564 | -2.57** |
| γ6 | 0.2144 | 0.97 |
| γ7 | 0.0411 | 0.18 |
| γ8 | -0.3626 | -2.06** |
| γ9 | 0.8399 | 5.81*** |
| γ10 | -0.8245 | -7.40*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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