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V-Lab

Ito Yogyo Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

51.10%

decreased by 4.31%

1 Week

56.37%

increased by 0.96%

1 Month

65.41%

increased by 10.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ito Yogyo Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 15, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1856
4.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2661
7.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6121
14.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1637
-0.95
γ20.4174
1.70*
γ3-0.5390
-3.45***
γ40.5528
3.39***
γ5-0.4564
-2.57**
γ60.2144
0.97
γ70.0411
0.18
γ8-0.3626
-2.06**
γ90.8399
5.81***
γ10-0.8245
-7.40***

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days