V-Lab
Him Teknoforge Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
50.40%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
51.78%
increased by 1.40%
1 Month
54.93%
increased by 4.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.42 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5665 | 9.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1449 | 21.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7887 | 75.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0204 | -0.85 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4176 | 18.79*** |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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