V-Lab
Him Teknoforge Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.92%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Week
44.52%
increased by 1.37%
1 Month
48.59%
increased by 5.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7262 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1219 | 5.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7283 | 13.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0975 | -0.83 |
| γ2 | 0.1087 | 0.64 |
| γ3 | 0.0717 | 0.66 |
| γ4 | -0.2767 | -2.60*** |
| γ5 | 0.3374 | 3.35*** |
| γ6 | -0.1762 | -2.53** |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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