V-Lab
Plc Spa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
42.39%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
51.00%
increased by 8.66%
1 Month
67.37%
increased by 25.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 20, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.1891 | 5.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1304 | 25.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9177 | 57.31*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2083 | 72.47*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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