V-Lab
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
25.04%
increased by 0.61%
1 Week
25.13%
increased by 0.70%
1 Month
25.48%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.5647 | 4.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0515 | 55.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 990.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5788 | 12.03*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
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