Bayerische Motoren Werke AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.46%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
30.49%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
30.62%
decreased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.6351 | 4.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0515 | 55.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9958 | 1,019.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5710 | 12.29*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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