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V-Lab

Obayashi Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

29.00%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

29.27%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

30.23%

increased by 0.82%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Obayashi Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.2438
6.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0760
32.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9831
353.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7129
7.61***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days