V-Lab
Obayashi Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
25.70%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Week
26.12%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
27.58%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.2561 | 6.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0760 | 32.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9832 | 355.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7249 | 7.61*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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