V-Lab
Plc Spa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
35.28%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
40.17%
increased by 3.98%
1 Month
40.31%
increased by 4.12%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 20, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 53% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2097 | 15.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1569 | 5.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1117 | 4.72*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.0338 | 0.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4363 | 0.44 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4626 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.422
Half-life:
1 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities