V-Lab
Beiersdorf AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
25.41%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
25.41%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
25.42%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5898 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0424 | 41.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9938 | 783.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3435 | 14.36*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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