V-Lab
Aster DM Quality Care Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
44.06%
decreased by 2.34%
1 Week
40.20%
decreased by 6.20%
1 Month
36.54%
decreased by 9.86%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2018 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.90 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5808 | 10.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2702 | 37.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4994 | 28.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0169 | -1.26 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8984 | 8.87*** |
Persistence:
0.714
Half-life:
2 days
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