V-Lab
Aster DM Quality Care Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
31.70%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
31.53%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Month
31.22%
decreased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9884 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | 2.40** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8089 | 7.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.5833 | 0.66 |
| γ2 | -0.2785 | -0.21 |
| γ3 | -1.2803 | -1.21 |
| γ4 | 1.9647 | 1.90* |
| γ5 | -2.0083 | -2.16** |
| γ6 | 2.3152 | 2.27** |
| γ7 | -2.7288 | -2.10** |
| γ8 | 2.2502 | 1.76* |
| γ9 | -0.9306 | -1.25 |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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