Skip to main content
V-Lab

East Money Information Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

46.98%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Week

46.62%

decreased by 1.54%

1 Month

45.46%

decreased by 2.70%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of East Money Information Co Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2436
4.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0581
4.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9052
48.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0018
0.34

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

19 days