East Money Information Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
46.98%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
46.62%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Month
45.46%
decreased by 2.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2436 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0581 | 4.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 48.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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