East Money Information Co Ltd GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
50.63%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
50.64%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
50.68%
decreased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2679 | 14.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0572 | 21.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9167 | 260.42*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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