East Money Information Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
45.49%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
46.12%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
48.19%
increased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3306 | 15.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1605 | 20.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8075 | 140.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0120 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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